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If you’ve been waiting for a sign, this might be it.
Mortgage rates have eased into the low 6s, averaging 6.2% last week. That’s a meaningful shift from where we’ve been, and notably, forecasts are calling for rates to drift into the 5.5–5.75% range by mid-2026.
Translation? Money just got cheaper. And it may get a little cheaper still.
That doesn’t mean we’re going back to 3% (we’re not). But it does mean the psychological and financial pressure of 7%+ rates is fading. And that changes behavior.
What the Showing Activity Is Telling Us
Here’s where it gets interesting.
- Overall showings were up 4.1% year-over-year.
- The $800K–$1M range saw a 46.3% increase in showings.
- $300K–$400K was up 4.4% and still makes up the largest share of activity (28.8%).
- Listings over $1M accounted for 2.3% of total showings.
Let’s unpack that. The biggest jump isn’t at the entry level. It’s in the upper-middle to luxury move-up market. That $800K–$1M surge tells me buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines are starting to lean back in. And they are not first-time buyers. They’re equity-rich homeowners. They’re move-up buyers. They’re people who locked in a low rate years ago and are finally doing the math again.
When rates soften even modestly, that segment wakes up first.
What This Means for Upper-Middle & Luxury Buyers
You have a window of opportunity. If rates drift into the high 5s later this year or next, more sidelined sellers will list. More competition will emerge. More buyers will re-enter.
Right now:
- Inventory is still relatively tight.
- Many sellers are still hesitant.
- Competition is selective, not chaotic.
If you are buying in the $800K–$1.5M+ range, you are shopping in a market that is warming, not overheated. That’s a strategic place to be.
What This Means for Sellers
The market is quietly strengthening from the middle up. When showing activity jumps 46% in a price band, that’s not noise — that’s momentum building.
As rates ease:
- Move-up buyers gain confidence.
- Refinancing pressure eases.
- The “maybe next year” conversations turn into listing appointments.
But here’s the reality: buyers are pickier than they were in 2021–2022. Condition matters. Pricing matters. Presentation absolutely matters. The days of throwing a sign in the yard and hoping for 14 offers are over. Strategic positioning is critical.
Outlook for First Half of 2026
Here’s my straight-shooter take:
- Gradual strengthening, not explosive growth.
- Rates likely hovering in the low 6s, potentially dipping into high 5s.
- Luxury and move-up markets gaining steady traction.
- Inventory rising modestly as confidence improves.
- Pricing stable to slightly appreciating in desirable neighborhoods and well-positioned homes.
If rates dip meaningfully below 6%, we could see a noticeable acceleration in activity by late spring or early summer. If rates hold steady around 6–6.25%, expect a balanced but increasingly active market. Either way — The “wait-and-see” crowd is getting restless and momentum is building.
The Big Picture
Everything outside in the Twin Cities might still be frozen solid. But the housing market? It’s showing signs of life. And smart buyers and sellers move during transitions — not after everyone else piles in.
If you’re thinking about moving up, downsizing, or testing the luxury market this year, let’s run the numbers now — before momentum builds further. I’ll give you the unvarnished truth:
- What your home would realistically sell for.
- What buying power looks like at 6.2% vs 5.75%.
- Whether sooner or later gives you the edge.
Reach out. Let’s talk about your plan for 2026 — before the market decides for you.
